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Ukraine rejects EU
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Partisan Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
Protests continuing in Kiev with further clashes.



11-26-2013, 09:24 PM
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Astraeos Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
"Casting its lot with Russia, on the other hand, will mean declining investments and a deepening economic crisis. As Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said: “They are not going West. I don’t think they are going East. I feel they are going down.”"

Prices will not increase as dramatically as they would have with Western investment. Lets just hope those protesters keep things interesting!

At the moment, I feel Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia are overdeveloped, overexposed, overcomercialized/ and/or socialized and the pickings not as good as they were a decade ago.
Time to head further east IMO. There is still hope for Ukraine, and if they have a big change I will be returning,
(This post was last modified: 11-28-2013, 04:09 PM by Astraeos.)
11-28-2013, 03:31 PM
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William Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
I noticed the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) is now at 8.25 per USD (was about 8.20 last week). I wonder if these protests are helping my foreign currency go farther here.

12-11-2013, 01:37 AM
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The Realness Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
(12-11-2013, 01:37 AM)William Wrote: I noticed the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) is now at 8.25 per USD (was about 8.20 last week). I wonder if these protests are helping my foreign currency go farther here.

i saw 7.99 yesterday Huh
12-11-2013, 01:46 AM
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The Realness Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
(12-11-2013, 01:37 AM)William Wrote: I noticed the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) is now at 8.25 per USD (was about 8.20 last week). I wonder if these protests are helping my foreign currency go farther here.

i saw 7.99 yesterday Huh
12-11-2013, 01:46 AM
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deb auchery Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
weakened a bit against the GBP too
12-11-2013, 01:54 AM
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William Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
Currently at 8.27 per dollar. Here's an article talking about a potential currency crash here.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/201...ency-crash
12-12-2013, 12:45 AM
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The Realness Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
this is a real scenario as well. in a nutshell, the current government literally stole all of its money and put the country in a big hole. Now they are trying to get 15 billion to save the crash lol. Of course that means, they need 15 billion, to inject 5 into the economy and split the other 10 amongst themselves.

my prediction is 12 UAH to 1 USD soon. For those with money, good time to start buying assets there as soon as that happens because after a short while, prices will be adjusted to reflect the new exchange rate
12-12-2013, 01:04 AM
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Partisan Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
(12-12-2013, 01:04 AM)The Realness Wrote: this is a real scenario as well. in a nutshell, the current government literally stole all of its money and put the country in a big hole. Now they are trying to get 15 billion to save the crash lol. Of course that means, they need 15 billion, to inject 5 into the economy and split the other 10 amongst themselves.

my prediction is 12 UAH to 1 USD soon. For those with money, good time to start buying assets there as soon as that happens because after a short while, prices will be adjusted to reflect the new exchange rate

Might be a good time to hit Ukraine in January/February next year when the economy goes south. The political and economic instability will probably drive the sex tourists away. When do you see the crash happening and what knock on effect will the events in Ukraine have on neighbouring countries like Belarus and Russia? I cant see Moscow letting go without a fight. Things could hot up on the street.


Live feed from the protests

http://rt.com/news/kiev-protests-integra...ashes-873/
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2013, 01:29 AM by Partisan.)
12-12-2013, 01:17 AM
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The Realness Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
(12-12-2013, 01:17 AM)Partisan Wrote:
(12-12-2013, 01:04 AM)The Realness Wrote: this is a real scenario as well. in a nutshell, the current government literally stole all of its money and put the country in a big hole. Now they are trying to get 15 billion to save the crash lol. Of course that means, they need 15 billion, to inject 5 into the economy and split the other 10 amongst themselves.

my prediction is 12 UAH to 1 USD soon. For those with money, good time to start buying assets there as soon as that happens because after a short while, prices will be adjusted to reflect the new exchange rate

Might be a good time to hit Ukraine in January/February next year when the economy goes south. The political and economic instability will probably drive the sex tourists away. When do you see the crash happening and what knock on effect will the events in Ukraine have on neighbouring countries like Belarus and Russia? I cant see Moscow letting go without a fight. Things could hot up on the street.


the situation is very tense and honestly its very hard to predict....here are my 2 cents

There are few things that we know to be true:

1. Ukraine is broke and need a loan badly.Time is of the essense. IMF and Russia are potential Loaners. Since Yanukovich sold himself to Putin, as of now he plans to sign the customs union with Russia, for cheaper gas, bailout money and BILLIONS into his own pocket.

2. Most people hate Russia and idea of closer ties with Russia. They want the EU, which you can see from the 3 week protests.

3. Yanuk will not go to EU at this point. No way.

4. Putin will give his left nut not to lose ukraine doing everything legal and most things illegal to keep them.

5. People are protesting HARD. LOL. I know i said this already but its a vital point in this discussion.

6. For Yanuk, after the beating of protesters and yesterdays attempt to dismantle the euromaidan, it's like a jihadist on a mission for him. He simply cannot backtrack on his decision now. He can't fire any of his people because that will cause distrust within the party and cause people to jump ship...and he cannot step down willingly (without a deal) because as soon as new pro EU government comes in all his and his families assets will be seized, as they were claimed by corruption and raider tactics.

7. There is severy pressure from the "west" now and yanuk and his people are in a serious risk of being sanctioned, which includes freezing of their assets they hold in the "west"

All these scenarios combine into a big ticking time bomb. I see a few outcomes out of this.

1. Yanuk fires the current government and HOPES thats enough for protesters. New government gets elected (if no rigging takes place) and impeaches him. Neither IMF or Russia will give Ukraine a loan. Result: economy crash. Highly unlikely scenario

2. Yanuk Resigns, temp governement is formed. IMF gives an emergency loan, and the economy is kept afloat. Not likely scenario

3. Yanuk signs a Customs union deal with Russia (supposedly scheduled for december 17) and russia gives aid. MASSIVE protests will follow, which may even lead to lots of bloodshed. Like i said, this is already a point of no return for Yanuk. Scenario pretty likely, but who knows.


So as you can see , its really hard to predict right now. Things are changing by the minute. The failed attempt to break up the revolution was a big win for the people last night and the heat is on now. I honestly have no idea whats going to happen. Most likely though the economy will crash. I give it a month or 2 if ukraine doesnt go in the path of EU
12-12-2013, 01:37 AM
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Partisan Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
(12-12-2013, 01:37 AM)The Realness Wrote:
(12-12-2013, 01:17 AM)Partisan Wrote:
(12-12-2013, 01:04 AM)The Realness Wrote: this is a real scenario as well. in a nutshell, the current government literally stole all of its money and put the country in a big hole. Now they are trying to get 15 billion to save the crash lol. Of course that means, they need 15 billion, to inject 5 into the economy and split the other 10 amongst themselves.

my prediction is 12 UAH to 1 USD soon. For those with money, good time to start buying assets there as soon as that happens because after a short while, prices will be adjusted to reflect the new exchange rate

Might be a good time to hit Ukraine in January/February next year when the economy goes south. The political and economic instability will probably drive the sex tourists away. When do you see the crash happening and what knock on effect will the events in Ukraine have on neighbouring countries like Belarus and Russia? I cant see Moscow letting go without a fight. Things could hot up on the street.


the situation is very tense and honestly its very hard to predict....here are my 2 cents

There are few things that we know to be true:

1. Ukraine is broke and need a loan badly.Time is of the essense. IMF and Russia are potential Loaners. Since Yanukovich sold himself to Putin, as of now he plans to sign the customs union with Russia, for cheaper gas, bailout money and BILLIONS into his own pocket.

2. Most people hate Russia and idea of closer ties with Russia. They want the EU, which you can see from the 3 week protests.

3. Yanuk will not go to EU at this point. No way.

4. Putin will give his left nut not to lose ukraine doing everything legal and most things illegal to keep them.

5. People are protesting HARD. LOL. I know i said this already but its a vital point in this discussion.

6. For Yanuk, after the beating of protesters and yesterdays attempt to dismantle the euromaidan, it's like a jihadist on a mission for him. He simply cannot backtrack on his decision now. He can't fire any of his people because that will cause distrust within the party and cause people to jump ship...and he cannot step down willingly (without a deal) because as soon as new pro EU government comes in all his and his families assets will be seized, as they were claimed by corruption and raider tactics.

7. There is severy pressure from the "west" now and yanuk and his people are in a serious risk of being sanctioned, which includes freezing of their assets they hold in the "west"

All these scenarios combine into a big ticking time bomb. I see a few outcomes out of this.

1. Yanuk fires the current government and HOPES thats enough for protesters. New government gets elected (if no rigging takes place) and impeaches him. Neither IMF or Russia will give Ukraine a loan. Result: economy crash. Highly unlikely scenario

2. Yanuk Resigns, temp governement is formed. IMF gives an emergency loan, and the economy is kept afloat. Not likely scenario

3. Yanuk signs a Customs union deal with Russia (supposedly scheduled for december 17) and russia gives aid. MASSIVE protests will follow, which may even lead to lots of bloodshed. Like i said, this is already a point of no return for Yanuk. Scenario pretty likely, but who knows.


So as you can see , its really hard to predict right now. Things are changing by the minute. The failed attempt to break up the revolution was a big win for the people last night and the heat is on now. I honestly have no idea whats going to happen. Most likely though the economy will crash. I give it a month or 2 if ukraine doesnt go in the path of EU

Good write up and summary of what is happening right now in Ukraine. Are you from/living there at the moment?

A couple of points I want to take up with you. Firstly, most Ukrainians dont hate Russia. They see Russia as their kin as there is huge similarities in both cultural, ecclesiastical, cultural, political, economic etc. Second, opinion on the EU deal is split 50/50 according to the polls.

There is alot at stake here for both the EU and Russia. Putin is taking this very personally and he will do anything he possible can to keep Ukraine within Moscow's 'near abroad' and not let Kiev slink off into the sunset and into EU and NATO membership down the line. For the EU, the stakes are also very high. Ukraine is a vital piece in the jigsaw for eastern expansion, a process of which began in June 1991 when Germany led the EU in illegally recognising Slovenia's and Croatia's independence from Yugoslavia. Once they broke the Serbs (the gatekeepers of Yugoslavia), the way for EU/NATO enlargement was open. The end game for the Western planners is to push the border with Russia and solidify its hold on the Black Sea. Ukraine is a market of 74 million people for EU firms and big businesses so lots of vested interests involved for both sides, therefore it all goes back to my original statement, the stakes could not be any higher. This could become messy.

(This post was last modified: 12-12-2013, 02:36 AM by Partisan.)
12-12-2013, 02:34 AM
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Post: #27
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
(12-12-2013, 02:34 AM)Partisan Wrote: Good write up and summary of what is happening right now in Ukraine. Are you from/living there at the moment?

A couple of points I want to take up with you. Firstly, most Ukrainians dont hate Russia. They see Russia as their kin as there is huge similarities in both cultural, ecclesiastical, cultural, political, economic etc. Second, opinion on the EU deal is split 50/50 according to the polls.

There is alot at stake here for both the EU and Russia. Putin is taking this very personally and he will do anything he possible can to keep Ukraine within Moscow's 'near abroad' and not let Kiev slink off into the sunset and into EU and NATO membership down the line. For the EU, the stakes are also very high. Ukraine is a vital piece in the jigsaw for eastern expansion, a process of which began in June 1991 when Germany led the EU in illegally recognising Slovenia's and Croatia's independence from Yugoslavia. Once they broke the Serbs (the gatekeepers of Yugoslavia), the way for EU/NATO enlargement was open. The end game for the Western planners is to push the border with Russia and solidify its hold on the Black Sea. Ukraine is a market of 74 million people for EU firms and big businesses so lots of vested interests involved for both sides, therefore it all goes back to my original statement, the stakes could not be any higher. This could become messy.


I am ukrainian living in the states but i follow this shit very closely.

I do have to correct you on a couple of things though: The country is 60/40 in favor of the EU as per latest polls. Basically it goes like this. All of West and north Ukraine is pro EU. East and South ukraine is pro russia. Why? Well because they pretty much ARE russians. Back during the soviet times, Lenin used mass migration of Russians to East and South Ukraine to "Russify" Ukraine. In the meantime he sent all ukrainians to "work" in siberia, kazakhstan, uzbekistan ,etc. West held out. North is 50-50 but theyhave ukrainian interests at heart.

I can tell you with 100% certainty, in the West people HATE russia. I'm not trying to blow up a subject but that's just how it is. Everything bad in the last 100 years that has happened to Ukraine was pretty much because of Russia including the big Famine of the 1930s (which happened in West Ukraine when Russia tried to kill off the ukrainian population). West ukraine will never forget that. Every ukrainian knows that had it not been for Russian influence, Ukraine wouldve been in Europe long time ago. There are dying to break away and join civilized world.

East/South Ukraine is another story. Its all russian speaking and quite frankly 95% of the people have that "mother russia" mentality. They are less educated, more influenced with news propaganda (especially during the current regime) and their views on the situation differs greatly. That being said, east and south ukraine holds more population than North/West so the fact that 60% are pro EU, tells you how many people from those regions suport EU integration as well. And those that dont, most of them are soviet era people that have never even been to the EU to see their standard of living. so the fact that they are even pro-russia is just because they are dumb, literally.

Good reference to the Yugo intervention, thats what Ukraine needs now to break away from Russia for good, is ACTUAL intervention from the West, not just words.

Very interesting to see what happens. My fingers are crossed
12-12-2013, 03:07 AM
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Post: #28
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
I have Ukrainian friends in Kiev and went to the protests with them last week on the Maidan. I was in the Mayor's offices on the Kreschatik etc. It is hard to comprehend just how much they hate Russia and everything it stands for. I don't mean dislike I mean hate, venomous hatred. It is hard for us to understand because we see the CCCP through a kind of benevolent pair of glasses. We imagine it in it's later lumbering years, the Brezhnev stagnation period, Perestroika, Misha at the 1980 Olympics, Glasnost, Gorby. But to my Ukrainian friends from the west or even Kiev they know of their family that were classed as Kulaks and murdered, their grandparents eating their shoes in the famine or family exiled to Karaganda etc. My mate takes great pleasure in harassing at every opportunity two kinds of people when he sees them: Russians and sex tourists. He thinks of them both as scum.

Russia as much as I love the place and the people is not the kind of country you want to tie your sails to unless you have no other options. It doesn't represent the greatest of ideals, democracy, freedom, egalitarianism. It represents suffocation of culture and freedom. Ukraine is at a cross roads, it can continue to have Russia meddling in it's affairs and elections, trying to control it for it's own self serving purpose or it can head towards EU integration which although a long long way off and far from ideal will at least hopefully ensure its native culture is allowed to flourish and democracy ( yup I know about Italy and the other non-elected EU leaders ) is held up to some kind of international standards.

The issue for Ukraine however is the huge divide along cultural and linguistic lines. Hopefully some reconciliation and common consensus can reign there. The west will never ever accept Russia or closer ties to it. Ever. But maybe the east can accept closer ties to Europe once the benefits eventually trickle down. The problem however is Russia once again and its threats. Russia subsidises Ukrainian gas and benzin. If the EU side win out here then expect subsidies to be removed and a lot of cold apartments in the country. That's why Yanukovich is pretty fucked either way.

Personally I'm neutral. I have friends in East and West Ukraine and can see both sides of the divide but in the long run I hope the decision is made by the west because I think after being exiled, starved, murdered and trodden on for being pro-Ukraine that they deserve a final say in the country's future.

Just my take though.
12-12-2013, 04:40 AM
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The Realness Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
@vortuka

Bravo. You see it exactly like it is my friend. Well said
12-12-2013, 05:36 AM
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Post: #30
RE: Ukraine rejects EU
I agree there is a sentiment of Russian hate in West. Its strong enough that those protesters aren't going to back down. I can see this getting violent real fast.

I've been following EU integration efforts in Ukraine for 2 years now.
I market November in my Calendar because I knew it was going to get interesting...I never thought it would get this intense.

Whatever the outcome, I can see a big change coming.

I'm staying out of Ukraine for the next few months and saving up some cash back home. If Ukraine turns towards the EU, I may decide to move to Kiev or Lviv.

If it turns towards Russia, I agree with Vorkuta: "Russia as much as I love the place and the people is not the kind of country you want to tie your sails to unless you have no other options. It doesn't represent the greatest of ideals, democracy, freedom, egalitarianism. It represents suffocation of culture and freedom."
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2013, 06:39 AM by Astraeos.)
12-12-2013, 06:39 AM
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